A Love Letter to Medium

We live to tell stories.  I believe the most effective way to communicate is through stories.  Medium didn’t change or innovate storytelling but improved the experience of sharing stories.  What most people didn’t realize was that discovering a story is as rewarding as hearing or reading it (and in some cases even more satisfying).  The stories range from travel experiences to life lessons to entrepreneurship to love.  They are real and allow us to feel connected and relate to someone across the country or world.

As a result of an increasingly mobile and web dominated world, consumer products have reduced storytelling to pictures, short videos and limited texts.  Medium, in contrast, embraces the written story and has simplified its design to be consistent across all stories (some may even say there is absence of design).  That such a platform has been able to attract over 13 million unique monthly users in less than 2 years is truly incredible.  Additionally, users are increasingly encouraged to write their stories on Medium knowing that there is a growing reader base actively searching for stories.  As a blogger, I understand the importance of where to share my writing as I value a platform that would increase the number of my readers.

Content is king.  Medium must host genuine stories and maintain a non-exclusive environment while also manage the quality of the writing.  This sounds like a catch-22!  Medium acquired MATTER last year to support high-quality journalism and already has a number of paid editors contributing content.  The costs of bringing on writers to produce quality content will naturally require the company to explore monetization options.  And investors will want to see eventual revenue streams as well.  Much like Facebook, it risks losing users by charging them for content (the difficulty of starting as a free service).  However, with bitcoin, it is possible for micro-transactions and therefore there is potential for a profitable pay-per-article structure for stories written by paid celebrity writers.

There are also other revenue options such as charging brands or professional outlets to create their own collections (e.g. Refinery 29’s collection on medium) and additional charges to promote its collection/content.  Companies and organizations can also utilize medium to launch story campaigns or create collections that are comprised of content generated by its customers/members, where individuals’ experiences with using a product/service or involvement with an organization are shared (The ESPN stories campaign on Medium is a good example of how user-generated story submissions can be done).  So companies like lyft or bevel or non-profit organizations could allow its users/members to write about their experience meeting their lyft driver or how a gift from bevel helped a boy realize he was growing up or maybe a girl’s recent trip to Asia with a medical group to provide small villages access to healthcare.

In my opinion, these collections of stories are more powerful than any ad/marketing campaign and are difficult to collect without something like medium (e.g. the idea of user submissions via email is yucky) – Medium makes it easy for the user to write directly on Medium and submit to a collection.  Embedded in these stories for companies are also feedbacks on the products/services, and inspiration for readers to use the product or service.  And for organizations, it helps reveal the impact of its programs at the individual level and encourages others to join the cause.  We’ve already seen this being done with pictures as companies utilize Instagram to share their customers’ experience (check out lyft’s Instagram or lululemon’s #thesweatlife gallery); individuals are able to upload a photo and tag the brand and companies are able to collect them and share them with the larger community, and this is all being done in one place.

Medium is still very young but it’s already proven its ability to influence the act and consumption of storytelling.

Invest in People

I believe in investing in people.  When I was in college actively searching for internships and a full-time job, I only wished for one thing: someone to invest in my potential and believe that if given the opportunity, I will succeed.

We are all startups. We have plans to succeed, we have visions and dreams, we face unexpected challenges that change our course, we sometimes fail and we will require the help of others to succeed.

In my junior year of college, I booked a trip to New York in hopes to meet someone that would be willing to mentor me and help me land a job in my dream city.  I reached out to alumni through e-mails, letters and phone calls, asking them to meet with me.  I was able to only land a handful of meetings, but I was determined to meet more when I arrived.  From the day I arrived in NY, I was jumping in and out of cabs and subways, and running around in my heels to make it to my meetings.  The experience was exhilarating but also terrifying.  With each meeting, I learned more about myself and what I wanted because I gained industry knowledge through conversations, I learned how the companies were structured, and I was able to see the culture and jobs that were masked behind the prestigious logos and tall buildings.  I found out what I didn’t know and what I needed to know to succeed in the industry.  I realized that this was what I really came to New York for.  I was referred to more individuals through my existing meetings and even ended up extending my flight last second to meet with a few more individuals.  It was a life-changing experience and one that I will always thank myself for.

I was determined to share this experience with others and so I founded BrightEyes in my last year of college.  I am very excited to share that last Sunday, we completed our second BrightEyes Study Tour.  This year’s Study Tour was focused on the startup and venture capital industries.  We selected 5 student entrepreneurs from UC San Diego to travel to San Francisco and Silicon Valley for 4 days to meet with industry professionals and tour startups and VC’s.

You can read about the trip on the BrightEyes Blog.

 

 

The Risks and Benefits of Foreign IPOs in the U.S.

I’ve been curious as to what risks or benefits an influx of foreign IPOs means for U.S. markets and companies.  Chinese IPOs have been a major focus this year as a number of Chinese companies, including Alibaba, Weibo, iQiyi.com and JD.com, are expected to list in the U.S. again this year since the delisting of 20 Chinese companies in 2011 and fears around accounting fraud and country risk.  In the past two years, only 11 Chinese companies have listed on U.S. exchanges.  Foreign companies see the opportunity to obtain access to a more liquid U.S. market by listing in the U.S. and are able to do so without having turned a profit.  Additionally, there is strong interest in the dual-class ownership structure allowed in the U.S., which enables a company to issue more than one class of shares with different voting rights.  As such, ownership in the company may be the same for individuals but the voting rights would be uneven, typically granting more voting rights to the management team (e.g. Google and Facebook structures).

My initial thoughts were that there could be a long-term negative impact from the growing number of foreign IPOs in the US because of the looser corporate-governance standards to list and post-IPO underperformance as a result of country risk and pre-IPO overvaluations fueled by increased investor risk tolerance and information asymmetry.  My research has both confirmed these concerns/risks and also suggested a more positive outcome.

Below is a summary of my research.

Shrinking stock market

Since 1990, the US stock market has been shrinking in number of publicly listed companies, from a peak of 8823 in 1997 down to ~5000 in 2012 (see chart below).  There is fear that a continued shrinking stock market would limit the number of companies that investors could buy shares in, impacting the value of the stock market and inflating stock prices.  This phenomenon could also cause investors to increase their investment activity abroad on foreign stock exchanges, decreasing trade volume in U.S. exchanges.  Foreign IPOs would help increase the supply of equities on U.S. stock exchanges and bring in more foreign investors, helping boost the U.S. IPO market (liquidity, encourage domestic ipo activity, increase ipo fee activity, etc.).

Number of listed companies on US exchanges

Data on Initial Public Offerings: Foreign IPOs in the U.S., 1988-2012 here.

Transparency

Country risk and asymmetric information along with fears of financial fraud are the main investor concerns for foreign companies.  Studies have revealed that foreign IPOs on average underprice more than matched domestic IPOs and this can be attributed to the above listed uncertainties.  Underpricing occurs when the offer price of an IPO is set at a significant discount to its first-day close price.  Recall the Baidu IPO which was offered at $27 per share and closed at $122.5 on the first day of trading, giving a first-day return of 353.85%.  Based on a study conducted on Chinese firms in the U.S. between 1993 – 2010, it was found that these firms generally underperform the benchmark and industry peers in the post-IPO period of 3 years.  There is a general belief that IPO firms typically experience a significant underperformance relative to their benchmarks in the subsequent 3 to 5 years after issuance.  This suggests that asymmetric information is both driving down initial pricing and causing underpricing.

Delistings

Transparency has been a top priority with a number of firms having delisted due to discovered accounting fraud.  Other reasons include stock underperformance below the exchange performance requirements or failure to comply with financial reporting requirements.  As mentioned above, there were a number of Chinese firms that delisted in 2011 because of financial fraud.  Delisting of companies not only increases distrust of foreign firms, but also results in investor losses as ownership of stock in the company doesn’t change while stock prices further decline as a result of the delisting.  Additionally, delisting would exacerbate the already shrinking stock market by reducing the supply of equities and increasing the perceived risk of listing on that exchange by future potential issuers.

Fear of a repeat of the 2011 Chinese firm delistings and lingering fears of financial fraud has resulted in an increased emphasis of transparency by foreign firms and compliance to U.S. financial reporting standards.  Strict enforcement of rules to improve transparency and compliance to these standards by foreign firms would help create a healthy IPO market and encourage more foreign firms to list on U.S. exchanges.

Ownership Structures

Investors are also cautious of complex ownership structures that allow management to retain more voting rights and allow for too much decision-making power.  These structures are difficult to understand and hinder communication of decisions between the shareholders and management (even more opaque with foreign firms).  The long-term performance of firms with these structures will depend on the success of management’s decision-making abilities to ensure trust among its shareholders, but changes in management will also create instant concern of future decisions among shareholders.  The long term implications of these structures are uncertain but some studies have shown that ownership arrangements like dual-class structures have not historically performed better than arrangements where voting rights are equal for all shares (Paul Gompers, Joy Ishii and Andrew Metrick conducted a study of American firms with different ownership structures between1994 to 2002).

 

I think increased foreign listings on U.S. exchanges are a positive sign for the U.S. as foreign companies identify a healthy and trustworthy market in the U.S., but whether the long-term effects are positive or negative will rely on transparency and the long-term performance of these foreign companies.

 

 

Two’s A Party – Dual-OS

Not long ago, MG Siegler wrote a post about Microsoft Office’s continued existence through Excel, and a few, including myself, also commented that Excel is one of the main reasons for our continued use of the PC.  This demonstrates the value of the operating system and its apps in a consumer’s choice of device and the increasing need for a device that runs multiple operating systems.  Dual-OS products allow for the convergence of entertainment or lifestyle products and business products.

Three days ago, Huawei confirmed that it will release a dual-OS smartphone this year, running Android and Windows Phone operating systems.  Dual-OS smartphones are the first step towards bringing work and leisure together on a single device; however, I don’t believe there is significant value-add of being able to edit Excel spreadsheets or PowerPoints on a phone.  The size limitations of a phone restrict its usage to phone calls, messaging, photography, quick searches and mobile apps.  And I don’t believe Phablets solve or avoid this limitation.  This has already been observed in e-commerce, where tablets are becoming a primary focus as conversion rates on tablets are now higher than smartphones, and I am convinced that this is largely driven by the fact that tablet screens are larger, supporting a more pleasant browsing and purchasing experience.  I believe the most valuable dual-OS product will be the dual-OS tablet, in which consumers can truly rid their need for multiple devices to support different behaviors.

However, it’s not going to be easy for the dual-OS tablet to enter the market as Microsoft and Google have already postponed the release of the Asus’ Transformer Book Duet TD300, a dual-OS tablet running Android and Windows software.  Asus’s dual-OS tablet would allow users to be able to switch between the Android and Windows operating system (“Instant Switch” technology).

There have been a number of reasons circulating as to why Microsoft and Google are so adamant to prevent the production of “dual-boot” machines.  One is that Google wants all-Android devices and so does Microsoft with all-Windows.  Another is that they would allow each other access to the other’s market through the hybrid products (Windows gaining access to mobile; Google gaining access to business tools).  Basically, both are threatened by the possibility of its customers developing loyalty to the other’s operating system, resulting in market share loss.

I believe Microsoft is also afraid it will never be able to gain footing in hardware if it allows other hardware players to offer both Windows and Android on their devices, while Microsoft is only able to offer Windows on its devices; Microsoft would no longer be able to leverage Windows to incentivize consumers to purchase its devices.  It could never become an Apple.  It would risk becoming another Blackberry…

Finding Value in Idle Assets

As a result of new marketplaces, platforms and services, owners are now able to recover value in some of their idle assets.  I will keep adding to this list over time but here’s some to start.  I observe that people are starting to lose sentimental value in ownership and that the barrier to entry of needing to purchase for usage is diminishing.  As such, we are seeing growing emphasis on usage and efficiency by the consumer.  The following list illustrates this phenomenon:

  • Homes – Airbnb, OneFineStay, HomeAway
  • Cars – Lyft, Sidecar
  • Art – Artspace, ARTtwo50, Artfinder, Creative Resale
  • Time – Monetize extra time w/ service businesses like Task Rabbit or use extra time to learn w/ Khan Academy, Lynda.com, edX, etc.
  • Ideas – SideProjectors, Hashtaag
  • Money – (extra $$ to invest) Lending Club, Kickstarter, Indiegogo, Rockethub, Razoo, wefunder, Common Bond, equity crowdfunding platforms (too many)
  • Books – Amazon, eBay, Bookbyte, Textbooks.com (too many)
  • Love? – Girlfriends are not to be left idle!!! But fill your dating schedule with Tinder, OkCupid, Grouper,…
  • Musical Instruments – Reverb, MusiciansHub
  • Crafts/Designs – Etsy, Shapeways, Thingiverse, Cubify, GrabCAD, Mixee Labs, Sketchfab,…
  • Clothes – Too many…but Poshmark, Vaunte, The RealReal, see more in my previous post about online/mobile consignment
  • 3D Printers – 3D Hubs, Maker6
  • Manufacturing/industrial equipment – Asseta
  • Recipes – Kitchensurfing, Yummly, Foodily, Tastnotes, allrecipes.com, BigOven,…
  • Sample Products – Birchbox, Beauty Army
  • Alcohol – The Box Noir
  • Venue spaces – Storefront, Eventup, eVenue
  • Old electronics – Craigslist, eBay, Glyde, Gazelle
  • Furniture – One Kings Lane, Craigslist, eBay, Amazon, Chairish
  • RV’s/Trailers – rvshare.com, PureRV, Wonderide
  • Coins – Coinstar

To be continued…